The Home Run Derby Curse

There is always the talk of “the derby will mess up your swing” but does that hold any weight?  History says it does.

With recency bias lets take a look at Aaron Judge. No doubt he is one of the best hitters in the league this year and no question he has had the most power with 30 HRs going into the the break.  He had a staggering .329 batting average before the break and since the return from the All-Star break he is hitting .166 (per MLB.com). He started the 2nd half of the season with a 1 for 21 stint against the Boston Red Sox and Minnesota Twins. He had a .36 home runs per game prior first half and .22 per games far in the second half. 

Yes guys will naturally slow down after a start like that, but they don’t just get figured out.  And, he is not the first guy to have this happen to him.  Look at Bobby Abreu, who going into the All-Star break was hitting .307 and finished the month of July hitting .194. He finished the season at .287.  David Wright is another who had 20 HRs going into the break and finished the season with only a total of 26 bombs.

So next time your slugger goes into the Derby maybe its time to worry a little about that.

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