The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook has released odds on who will win the 2019 regular season home run title. Giancarlo Stanton (7/1) is the favorite, followed by his fellow New York Yankees bash brother, Aaron Judge (12/1). JD Martinez (18/1), Joey Gallo (20/1), and Khris Davis (20/1) round out the top 5. The full list can be found here.
Among the loaded field is some serious value. Let’s take a look at my favorite value picks for the prop bet.
Max Muncy (200/1)
Max Muncy is criminally undervalued at 200/1. The Los Angeles Dodgers slugger hit 35 home runs last season in just 481 plate appearances, giving him a National League-best 11.3 AB/HR. The lefty will also benefit from playing in the NL West, in which he’ll play 10 games at Coors Field, where gravity does not apply to baseballs. Expect Muncy to be aggressive in his second full season, looking to launch balls into orbit and become a perennial power threat. This might be the best value on the entire board.
Daniel Palka (200/1)
If you’re wondering, who is Daniel Palka?, don’t worry, you’re not alone. The 26-year-old rookie made a name for himself in 2018 by doing one thing really, really well: hitting for power. The Chicago White Sox outfielder led the MLB in average home run exit velocity (108.5 mph) and also hit the 4th hardest ball of the year (118.4 mph). Palka hit 27 home runs in 124 games, which extrapolates to 36 home runs over a full season. Not bad for a rookie. In his second season, Palka will likely see his average rise, as well as his power numbers. It’s not crazy to imagine Palka wearing the home run crown at the end of the year, and at 200/1 it’s certainly worth a small bet.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (100/1)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. just hit a ball a million mph off the bat, and that’s a conservative estimate. pic.twitter.com/vBdeeZ2bsm
— Ben Porter (@Ben13Porter) May 8, 2018
Do you love baseball? Do you love fun? If you answered “yes” to either one of those questions, chances are you’re rooting for a monster rookie season from Vlad Jr. The Toronto Blue Jays caught lightning in a bottle when they signed the then 16-year-old Guerrero in 2015. I’ll admit that betting on a rookie to lead the MLB in bombs is bold, but if you believe the Manny Ramirez comparisons and are looking for a fun wager, 100/1 on a rookie phenom should do the trick.
Khris Davis (20/1)
Of the 5 players at the top of the board, Khrush Davis offers the best value. The Oakland A’s outfielder is not only the most consistent hitter in baseball history (hit .247 for the past four seasons) but one of the most consistently powerful. Davis has eclipsed 40 home runs in each of the past three seasons, and there’s no reason to believe he won’t do it again. Since the year 2000, though, only two players have led the MLB in home runs in consecutive seasons (Alex Rodriguez, 2002-2003, and Jose Bautista, 2010-2011). It’s a difficult task, but Davis’s consistency gives him as good a chance as anyone. At 20/1, he’s the best value near the top of the board.
2019 should be a fun season for baseball bettors. For now, though, pounce on those futures bets while the value is still there. Opening Day can’t come soon enough.
Image: Sporting News