No team in the NFL is hotter than the Houston Texans. Currently riding a 9-game winning streak, the Texans sit only one game out of first place in the AFC, tied with New England for second place. They can even clinch their division by beating the Indianapolis Colts and the Tennessee Titans losing to Jacksonville.
HOWEVER, they are vastly overrated.
The Texans only have 1 win against a team currently above .500, a Week 5 win over the Dallas Cowboys. Teams in the NFL can only play their schedule, so we can’t get too mad that their schedule has been softer than I am after a few too many beers at the pub and I meet a nice cougar. I just can’t too much faith in a team that barely squeaked by Colt McCoy and the Redskins just a few weeks back.
The stats also point to the Texans not being amongst the elite teams in the AFC. Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Los Angeles, New England, and even Indianapolis all are more prolific on offense than the Texans’ 12th ranked offense. Even Baltimore’s remarkably average offense is only 0.4 points per game behind them. Eventually, the Texans are going to need to outscore all of those teams to make a run in the postseason, and I don’t think they can.
Texans fans will tell me “Defense wins championships, though,” and perhaps they have a point. Houston does have the NFL’s third-best scoring defense (second only to Baltimore in the AFC). Yet Houston is in the bottom half of the league against the pass this year, giving up 250.2 yards per game through the air. Keep in mind, that figure includes games against notoriously terrible passers Dak Prescott, Nathan Peterman, Blake Bortles, Brock Osweiler, and Colt McCoy. If that motley crew can do damage against the Texans secondary, imagine what Tom Brady or Patrick Mahomes will do to them.
This Texans team just doesn’t feel different from the ones to come before it. They will do well against the bad teams in the regular season, maybe win a Wild Card Game against the worst team in the postseason, then get crushed once they play actual competition. So enjoy your win streak Houston, because we all know it ends in heartbreak.