Middle Urinal Must Bets: NFL Week 1



Welcome to Middle Urinal Must Bets, presented by the WTP Sports Book (go DM @WTP_SportsBook on Twitter to place your bets). Each week on Live from the Middle Urinal—an OK-at-best podcast you certainly should(n’t) listen to—myself and fellow degenerate sports bettor Dom not only talk about our favorite bets for the following week, but we guess the lines, talk about the bad beats from the week before, and of course, give you our…


Last year, we started these suckers a little late and weren’t able to finish the season, but this year we’re in it for the long-haul. After going 4-0 (Matt) and 2-2 (Dom), we’re committing to 16 weeks of pickin’ LOCKS for the boys. Get excited. This year, we’re also going to add in a consensus bonus pick, one that we both like.

And now, without further ado, here are our LOCKS OF THE WEEK for NFL Week 1.

Matt (0-0; lifetime, 4-0)
The Game: Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots; Sunday, 8:20 pm
The Pick: NE -5.5 (now -5.5)

Look, I know it’s kinda nuts to take the Pats during their first 4 games since they always do the 3-1 or 2-2 record thing and everyone freaks out—and they’ve certainly lost at home to open the season before (remember KC?). HOWEVER, Tom Brady has never lost to the Steelers at home. In fact, he’s 5-0 in his career against them at home. Since Gillette opened its gates in ’02, the Steelers have only won there once, in ’08 with Matt Cassel at the helm. In games where the Pats are unveiling a Super Bowl banner, they’ve played the Steelers twice. They’re 2-0. With Pittsburgh needing to figure itself out post-Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell, coupled with Tom Brady having more weapons at WR than he’s had in years, I feel a solid 10-point win here. Mark it.

Dom (0-0; lifetime, 2-2)
The Game: Cincinnati Bengals at Seattle Seahawks; Sunday at 4:05 pm
The Pick: SEA -9.5 (now -9.5)

The Bengals are looking like they might be the consensus worst team in the league save for the opinions of a couple crazies in Cincy, and it’s tough to bet against Russell Wilson at the Seahawks at home at any point. The money line on this game was -390 when we recorded, and Dom’s pretty comfortable saying that Seattle is going to walk away from this one with a 14-point win. What’s that rule? If the number is high, it’s high for a reason. Take Russell Wilson.


The Game: Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears; Thursday at 8:20 pm
The Pick: GB +3 (now +3)

We had this backward on today’s show. But, the line opened at Chicago -4 at home against a Packers team that’s completely reliant on Aaron Rodgers staying healthy (which he might, but expect at least 2 sacks tonight). While the Pack has to prove it, here’s the thing. Knowing the teams could be fairly even, the public still started betting on the Bears, and the Packers gained a point—the line went to -3 instead of -5. To quote Dom, “something’s fishy.” I don’t expect the Monsters of the Midway to cover here. But the Pack? That’s another story.

Every Sunday morning (going forward), I’ll be bringing you these picks, so make sure you place all your bets with the WTP Sports Book by DMing us at @WTP_SportsBook on Twitter. Go make some money, folks. And listen to the show on Wednesdays anywhere you can find podcasts!


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