Middle Urinal Must Bets: NFL Week 11


Welcome to Middle Urinal Must Bets, presented by the WTP Sports Book (go DM @WTP_SportsBook on Twitter to place your bets). Each week on Live from the Middle Urinal—a OK-at-best podcast you certainly should(n’t) listen to—myself and fellow degenerate sports bettor Dom not only talk about our favorite bets for the following week, but we guess the lines, talk about the bad beats from the week before, and of course, give you our…


Here’s what we’ve done  thus far

Week 7:
Matt — CLE +3 at TB: WIN
Dom — IND -7 at BUF: WIN

Week 8:
Matt — SEA +3 at DET: WIN
Dom — CLE +8.5 at PIT: LOSS

Week 9:
Matt — KC -8 at CLE: WIN
Dom — HOU +2.5 at DEN: WIN

Week 10:
Matt — WAS +3 at TB: WIN
Dom — NE -6.5 at TEN: LOSS

And now, without further ado, here are our LOCKS OF THE WEEK for NFL Week 11.

Matt (4-0)
The Game: Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars; Sunday, 1:00 pm
The Pick: PIT -6 (now -4.5)

Look, this is as simple as it gets. Pittsburgh is rolling, looking like an absolute wagon, and Jacksonville has struggled consistently. I will always, always, always bet against a team that can’t figure it out at QB. It’s so important. Jacksonville’s defense is looking like it’s going to fall apart now, and I don’t trust it to contain anything that Pittsburgh’s offense throws at it. This is going to be like a shootout with only one team using real bullets. Lock it in.

Dom (2-2)
The Game: Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions; Sunday 1:00 pm
The Pick: CAR -4 (now -4.5)

Dom and I have several rules when we bet. There are certain situations where we just know that you’re going to get better value by going with a certain team in a certain spot. This is one of those situations. Carolina was just embarrassed by Pittsburgh in a primetime game, and now they’re playing a team in Detroit that we don’t necessarily think is good. This is a bounce back game for Carolina. They’re going to come out swinging. Lock it in.

BONUS PICK ALERT!!!!! Shoutout WTP’s own Mike Valente for this pick:

The Game:  Philadelphia Eagles at; New Orleans Saints Sunday 4:25 pm
The Pick: NO -7.5 (now -7.5)

This may not come to be a shocker to most people but I’m rolling with the saints against the Eagles. The Saints are now on an 8-game win streak. Hell, they could very well be undefeated if it weren’t for that tough first game against the Bucs. Although it’s more likely to be a closer game, this could honestly be a blowout in my eyes. Yes, Wentz is great and all, but the Eagles are now without both of their top corners, Jalen Mills and Ronald Darby. Mills has been out since sustaining a foot injury in Week 8 and Darby just tore his ACL last week against the Cowboys. Not to mention that Malcolm Jenkins was listed on the injury report this week, and seen with a cast on his arm. He said he “was ok”, but maybe something to keep an eye on, especially for this Eagles defense that could desperately use him. The Eagles are 23rd in the NFL in passing yards a game and now with no Darby, I expect Brees and Michael Thomas to continue their dominance against this injured secondary. Let’s not forget the Saints are also first against the run this year. The one reason I have so much confidence is that Dak actually had only thrown for 270 yards once this season, and he was able to do that again against this banged up Eagles defense. He looked very comfortable doing it. In the dome too? Gimme Brees. This may just be another 3-touchdown, 300-yard game. Lock it in.

Every Sunday morning, I’ll be bringing you these picks, so make sure you place all your bets with the WTP Sports Book by DMing us at @WTP_SportsBook on Twitter. Go make some money, folks.


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